Water GenbuTier 2
at 0817 DTR Store Championship
decks
1
(3.7% of field)
matches (non-mirror)
8
0-4-4
overall winrate
25.0%
ELO-adjusted winrate
38.0%
avg ELO -5.8 per match
expected value
43.3%
share-weighted (raw)
EV (ELO-adj)
45.8%
share-weighted (skill-controlled)
Pilot Skill ↓ low
mean ELO 1214
· median 1214
· range 1214–1214
(1 pilot with an ELO rating)
1067
Q1 1180
Q3 1391
1694
0% of pilots are in the field's top quartile,
0% in the bottom.
This deck is favored by lower-rated players — its raw winrate may understate how good it is.
Head-to-Head Matchups
Winrates vs every other archetype, sorted by the opponent's field share. Mirrors excluded. Shrunk WR uses a Beta(2, 2) prior so a 1-0 cell doesn't read as 100%; it feeds the EV calc above. Adj WR is the skill-controlled view: derived from per-match ELO deltas (0.5 + avg ELO Δ / K=32, same shrinkage), so it tells you what would have happened on equal-rating play. A faded Raw WR means under 10 matches — lean on the Shrunk WR column there.
| Opponent | Their share | Matches | W-L-D | Raw WR | Shrunk WR | Adj WR | ELO Δ/match |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fire Rile | 44.4% | 2 | 0-1-1 | 25.0% | 41.7% | 45.7% | -4.1 |
| Fire Luxem Assassin | 11.1% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Shadowstrike | 11.1% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 46.5% | -5.6 |
| Fire Suited | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Fractal | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Allies | 7.4% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
| Wind Umbra Tristan | 7.4% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Aggro | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Arcane | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 47.9% | -3.3 |
| Fire Cinderbloom Combo | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Hybrid | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Lorraine | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Crux Mage | 3.7% | 1 | 0-0-1 | 50.0% | 50.0% | 49.9% | -0.1 |
| Fire Exia | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Oblation | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fire Ravishing Mill | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 45.0% | -8.0 |
| Fire Suzaku | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Aetherwing | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Water Neos | 3.7% | 0 | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wind Wakeup Combo | 3.7% | 1 | 0-1-0 | 0.0% | 40.0% | 43.4% | -10.5 |
Decklists · 1 from this event
The 1 public Water Genbu decklist from this event, ordered by final placement — click a pilot for the full list.
